The World Health Organization has officially classified the mpox outbreaks in Congo and various parts of Africa as a global emergency. This alarming situation has seen cases in both children and adults across over a dozen countries, with a novel strain of the virus beginning to spread.
Just earlier this week, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also declared the mpox outbreaks a public health emergency. The toll is significant, with more than 14,000 reported cases and over 500 deaths so far. In response, there has been a call for international assistance to curb the spread of this rapidly escalating virus.
Is mpox going to trigger another pandemic?
This undated image provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) shows a colorized transmission electron micrograph of mpox particles (in red) within an infected cell (in blue), cultured in the laboratory and captured at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility in Fort Detrick, Maryland. The image has been color-enhanced to highlight the viral particles.
Despite concerns, it is highly unlikely that mpox will lead to a pandemic on the scale of swine flu or COVID-19. Historically, pandemics have been driven by airborne viruses that spread rapidly, often even before symptoms appear in the infected individuals. These characteristics allow such viruses to infect large numbers of people in a short period of time.
Mpox, previously known as monkeypox, spreads mainly through direct skin-to-skin contact with an infected person or through contact with contaminated materials like clothing or bedsheets. The virus typically causes visible skin lesions, which might actually reduce the chances of close contact and thus limit its spread. This mode of transmission makes it less likely to reach the widespread, uncontrolled levels necessary to trigger a global pandemic.
To protect yourself from mpox, experts recommend steering clear of close physical contact with anyone showing lesions that resemble those caused by the virus. Additionally, it’s crucial not to share personal items such as utensils, clothing, or bedsheets with someone who might be infected. Maintaining good hygiene practices, like regular hand-washing, is also key to reducing the risk of infection.
On Friday, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) issued a statement indicating that while the likelihood of more mpox cases being imported from Africa into Europe is “highly likely,” the probability of local outbreaks within Europe remains very low. This assessment is based on the fact that mpox does not spread as easily as viruses that are transmitted through the air.
Scientists further emphasize that for countries where mpox is not currently circulating, the risk to the general population is minimal. The virus primarily spreads through close physical contact, particularly skin-to-skin contact with someone who is infected. Because of this, mpox is less likely to cause widespread outbreaks in regions where it hasn’t already taken hold.
In summary, while it’s important to be vigilant and take precautions, the risk of mpox spreading widely in areas without existing outbreaks is low. Public health measures and individual precautions should be sufficient to keep the situation under control in most parts of the world.
How different is mpox from COVID-19?
A child plays in the Bulengo refugee camp in Goma, Congo, on Thursday, August 15, 2024, following the World Health Organization’s declaration of the escalating mpox outbreak in Africa as a global health emergency. The WHO issued a warning that the virus could potentially cross international borders, raising concerns about its global impact. (AP Photo/Moses Sawasawa)
Unlike the coronavirus, mpox spreads at a much slower pace. When the coronavirus was first identified in China, the number of cases skyrocketed in a matter of weeks, with infections soaring from a few hundred to several thousand. In January alone, the case count increased more than tenfold within just one week.
By March 2020, when the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic, over 126,000 infections had been reported worldwide, along with approximately 4,600 deaths. This rapid spread occurred within about three months of the virus’s initial identification. In stark contrast, mpox has taken significantly longer to reach global numbers. Since its reemergence in 2022, the virus has infected nearly 100,000 people worldwide, resulting in around 200 deaths, according to WHO data.
One key difference between the mpox outbreak and the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic is the availability of vaccines and treatments. During the initial spread of COVID-19, there were no vaccines or antiviral treatments, leaving the world vulnerable and unprepared for the virus’s rapid transmission. However, the situation with mpox is different. Vaccines and effective treatments are already available, which has significantly mitigated the virus’s impact and spread.
Dr. Chris Beyrer, director of Duke University’s Global Health Institute, emphasized the importance of the resources currently at our disposal, stating, “We have what we need to stop mpox. This is not the same situation we faced during COVID when there was no vaccine and no antivirals.” With these tools in hand, there is a strong potential to control and ultimately halt the spread of mpox, preventing it from becoming a global crisis akin to COVID-19.
While the slow spread of mpox and the availability of medical interventions provide some reassurance, it remains crucial to monitor the situation closely and continue efforts to contain the virus, particularly in regions where it is most prevalent. Public health initiatives, vaccination campaigns, and international cooperation will be key to preventing mpox from becoming a widespread threat.
In summary, although the WHO has raised the alarm over the growing mpox outbreak in Africa, the global situation is different from the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The slower transmission rate of mpox, coupled with the availability of vaccines and treatments, gives the world a significant advantage in containing the virus and preventing a broader public health emergency.
