Here’s the latest update on Tropical Storm Francine: The system is currently located about 400 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, and is drifting slowly in a north-northwest direction.
Recent microwave satellite imagery indicates that Francine is showing signs of intensification, with a developing core of thunderstorms and an early-stage eye forming at its center.
While the majority of the precipitation remains offshore, certain bands of rain have intermittently reached parts of South Texas.
On Monday morning, tidal gauges reported minor coastal flooding along the Texas coast, particularly from Port O’Connor southward.
Here’s a detailed overview of the current alerts in place: The map provided below highlights the areas under hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. These advisories are generally issued when there is a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions expected within the next 36 hours.
At present, storm surge and hurricane warnings are active for parts of the Louisiana coastline. These warnings indicate that severe storm surge and hurricane conditions are anticipated to affect these areas imminently.
In addition, tropical storm watches and warnings extend along much of the Gulf Coast, spanning from northeastern Mexico up to the border between Alabama and Mississippi. These alerts are in effect to prepare residents for potential tropical storm impacts in these regions.
Forecast Track and Intensity
Tropical Storm Francine is projected to continue strengthening as it approaches the Louisiana coast, where it is expected to make landfall as a hurricane by Wednesday. The storm is likely to move over a region of exceptionally warm Gulf waters, which should facilitate its intensification. However, Francine may encounter increasing wind shear and potentially some drier air near the Gulf Coast, factors that could limit its maximum strength as it nears landfall.
The effects of Francine will begin impacting areas along the Texas and Louisiana coasts well before the storm actually makes landfall. Residents in these regions should be prepared for adverse weather conditions ahead of the hurricane’s arrival. Once it makes landfall, the storm will bring significant rainfall to various parts of the South, extending its effects as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys later this week.
Potential Impacts
Starting Tuesday, bands of heavy rain are likely to impact the coastal regions stretching from South Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi, and southern Alabama. This intense rainfall may persist along these coastlines through Wednesday night or early Thursday.
Rainfall amounts from Francine could vary significantly, with totals reaching between 4 and 8 inches in many areas. In some localized spots, precipitation could accumulate up to 12 inches. This heavy rain will affect areas from the northeastern coast of Mexico to the southern Texas coast, as well as parts of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Thursday morning.
The region has already experienced substantial rainfall recently, leading to saturated soil conditions that heighten the risk of flash flooding. This additional rain could exacerbate flooding issues significantly.
As Francine progresses, its heavy rains are expected to extend into other southern regions, reaching as far north as the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys later in the week. These areas should brace for potential localized flooding.
However, the impact of the rainfall may differ notably depending on Francine’s exact path. To the west and northwest of the storm’s trajectory, drier air might limit precipitation. Therefore, areas just inland from the Texas coast might receive minimal to no rainfall.
In addition to heavy rain, life-threatening storm surge is anticipated to inundate low-lying areas along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts starting Tuesday night. The National Hurricane Center has warned that peak surge could reach between 5 to 10 feet in parts of southern Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay, if the surge coincides with high tide.
This surge is expected to peak within a few hours of landfall, which is anticipated later on Wednesday. Coastal areas as far east as Mobile Bay may experience lingering coastal flooding into Thursday morning.
Residents in these areas should follow local evacuation orders and heed the advice of local officials to ensure their safety.
Wind and Tornado Threats
Hurricane conditions could begin affecting areas under hurricane warnings in southern Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon. Preparations should be completed by Wednesday morning, as tropical storm-force winds could start making an impact then.
These winds are strong enough to cause significant tree damage and power outages in southern Louisiana. Residents should be prepared for potential extended power outages that could last several days after the storm passes.
Tropical storm-force winds might also affect parts of the South Texas coast, southeastern Louisiana, and the upper Texas coast. In these regions, scattered power outages and minor tree damage are possible.
Additionally, landfalling tropical systems often generate tornadoes near and inland from their landfall points. A tornado threat could emerge by Wednesday or Wednesday night, particularly in southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. This risk may continue along the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday and could extend as far north as the Tennessee Valley by Friday. Read more…